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  • Roger S. Conrad

US Economic Outlook: Slow and Steady Growth

By Elliott H. Gue on Nov. 26, 2012

Longtime readers will recall that in early 2012 we called for US economic growth to slow and the stock market to pull back in a repeat performance of the summer swoons that occurred in the prior two years.

This outlook reflected a number of headwinds: the waning effects of the artificial economic stimulus provided by the unseasonably warm 2011-12 winter; the uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election and its implications for tax policy; and the ongoing sovereign-debt crisis in Europe. At the same time, we emphasized that this temporary soft patch wouldn’t bloom into a recession. These prognostications panned out, with US economic growth slowing in the summer and accelerating in September and October. 

We now expect the domestic economy to strengthen into early 2013, but gross domestic product will only grow between 2 percent and 3 percent on the year. At present, the balance of evidence suggests that economic growth will come in at the low end of this range.

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    • Elliott H. Gue

      Founder and Chief Analyst: Capitalist Times and Energy & Income Advisor

    • Roger S. Conrad

      Founder and Chief Analyst: Capitalist Times and Energy & Income Advisor