Just under half the energy stocks in the S&P 500 have reported Q3 2019 results so far including Schlumberger and Halliburton, the world’s two diversified services majors.

What’s emerged is a clear divergence in performance – growth in international markets and continued pressure on profit margins and growth in North American shale. The international spending upturn is now well underway, which is particularly encouraging when you consider the historic drop in international oilfield spending between 2014 and 2018.

And despite the shale services bust in Q3, we’re seeing some reasons for optimism in North America including industry capacity rationalizations and a change in the way producers contract for services.

In this issue, we’ll take a deeper dive into the services business and some of the comments from both Schlumberger and Halliburton on their Q3 2019 conference calls. We’ll also examine one of the most powerful but overlooked potential upside catalysts for energy stocks in the year ahead.

It’s been roughly two weeks since the September 14 attacks on Saudi oilfields took about 5 percent of global oil production temporarily offline. And the North American benchmark price per barrel has already retreated to its long-held mid-50s trading range.

This is the clearest indication yet of how the rise of US shale production has dramatically shifted the global oil market. And it’s why, as we pointed out last issue, energy investors need to rise above the noise of geopolitics.

When it comes to energy prices that means focusing on supply and demand. And it’s why energy companies we own must be able to prosper in the same lower-for-longer price environment that’s existed since mid-decade.

The fear factor appears to have lessened a bit since our previous Energy and Income Advisor issue. But with all eyes still on the global economy, these still aren’t especially good times for energy stocks, many of which are pricing in a big future drop in oil.

The Alerian MLP Infrastructure Index, for example, is lower by more than 10 percent in barely a month. That’s despite the generally robust second quarter results of most index components, as well as multiple dividend increases.

For readers interested in betting on a rebound through mutual funds or ETFs, we suggest taking a look at closed-end funds like Kayne Anderson MLP Midstream (NYSE: KYN). Not only are its top holdings arguably over-discounted to otherwise solid prospects but it trades at a discount to net asset value of more than 10 percent. That’s double leverage to a recovery in MLPs, though there’s risk as well: The fund cut its monthly payout by 20 percent at the start of 2019.