US oil prices are back in the neighborhood of $20 a barrel. And they’re showing every sign of going lower as COVID-19 fallout depresses demand and Saudi Arabia ramps up output like there’s no tomorrow.

Natural gas prices, meanwhile, have sagged under $1.70 per thousand cubic foot. They may catch a break on the supply front this year, as cutbacks of shale oil production reduce output of associated natural gas. But that may be more than offset by sagging demand, should efforts to reduce COVID-19’s spread result in a big drop in electricity usage.

The bottom line is energy producers are facing their worst operating environment since the early ‘00s. And unlike the last time prices dipped in 2015-16, their list of allies on Wall Street grows thin, all but cutting them off from economic outside financing. In effect, they’re on their own to generate the cash they need to operate.

Unless there’s a monster rally in the last 10 days of March, oil prices are headed for their worst one-month performance in history. In fact, the decline so far is almost 17 percentage points greater than the previous record of -33 percent in October 2008.

Then as now, energy prices have been hammered by the growing likelihood of a global demand shock. That time around, the cause for concern was the Financial Crisis, which then had unknown dire consequences for economic growth. This time, it’s COVID-19 and its highly uncertain eventual impact on human health and the global economy.

Oil prices, however, simultaneously face a supply shock, as Saudi Arabia ramps up production even as demand comes under pressure. A similar move by the Saudis in 2015 was enough by itself to drive US prices down to $26 and change. This time around, combined with the demand shock, we now see a probability of oil prices in the mid-teens before there’s a hard bottom.