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  • Roger S. Conrad

Elliott Gue knows energy. Since earning his bachelor’s and master’s degrees from the University of London, Elliott has dedicated himself to learning the ins and outs of this dynamic sector, scouring trade magazines, attending industry conferences, touring facilities and meeting with management teams.

Elliott Gue’s knowledge of the energy sector and prescient investment calls prompted the official program of the 2008 G-8 Summit in Tokyo to call him “the world’s leading energy strategist.”

He has also appeared on CNBC and Bloomberg TV and has been quoted in a number of major publications, including Barron’s, Forbes and the Washington Post. Elliott Gue’s expertise and track record of success have also made him a sought-after speaker at MoneyShows and events hosted by the Association of Individual Investors.

Elliott Gue also contributed chapters on developments in global energy markets to two books published by the FT Press, The Silk Road to Riches: How You Can Profit by Investing in Asia’s Newfound Prosperity and Rise of the State: Profitable Investing and Geopolitics in the 21st Century.

Prior to founding the Capitalist Times, Elliott Gue shared his expertise and stock-picking abilities with individual investors in two highly regarded research publications, MLP Profits and The Energy Strategist, as well as long-running financial advisory Personal Finance.

In October 2012, Elliott Gue launched the Energy & Income Advisor, a semimonthly online newsletter that’s dedicated to uncovering the most profitable opportunities in the energy sector, from growth stocks to high-yielding utilities, royalty trusts and master limited partnerships.

The masthead may have changed, but subscribers can expect Elliott Gue to deliver the same high-quality analysis and rational assessment of investment opportunities in the energy patch.


Recession Risk Rising but Energy Still Shining

The S&P 500 has now lost more than -20 percent of its value since January 1. But despite recently increased volatility, the S&P 500 Energy Index still boasts a year-to-date total return north of 40 percent. The midstream stock-laden Alerian MLP Index is up around 26 percent. And the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Oil Service Sector Index is ahead by more than 22 percent.

That’s a staggering outperformance. And it comes in a year when the bond market continues to melt down in the face of a Federal Reserve all-out assault on inflation, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield rising by 132 percent to over 3.5 percent.

Energy is a highly capital intensive industry. And even the strongest companies’ cost of debt has risen sharply this year, as low valuations have kept equity issuances to a minimum outside of dividend reinvestment plans. Model Portfolio member ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM), for example, still yields nearly 4 percent and sells for less than 7.5 times its expected next 12 months earnings, as well as barely 10 times trailing 12 months free cash flow per share.

Stay Patient as Energy Values Appear

So far this month, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK/B) has announced purchases of 27 million and 12 million shares of long-time EIA recommendation Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY). As a result, the giant investment and insurance firm now owns 18.7 percent of the oil and gas producer—that’s nearly as much as the next two largest holders combined.

Why load up on a still highly leveraged commodity producer just as an inflation-focused Federal Reserve appears to be tipping the US economy into recession? We suspect it’s the same basic reason for all of Mr. Buffett’s investments since he became Berkshire’s Chairman and CEO way back in 1970: He sees truly massive free cash flows in Occidental’s future.

Mid-Year Commodity Update

The dollar, pipeline regulations, Biden, the mid-terms, Saudi Arabia, Big Oil’s “greed,” and the war in Ukraine…

The mainstream and financial media’s efforts to explain the wild swings in crude oil so far this year are apt to touch on all these emotional hot-button issues while largely ignoring the fundamentals that truly drive commodity cycles: Supply, demand, and price.

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  • Live Chat with

    Elliott and Roger on Sep. 27, 2022

  • Portfolios & Ratings


    • Elliott H. Gue

      Founder and Chief Analyst: Capitalist Times and Energy & Income Advisor

    • Roger S. Conrad

      Founder and Chief Analyst: Capitalist Times and Energy & Income Advisor