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  • Roger S. Conrad

The Earnings Issue

By  Elliott H. Gue
Issue No.207 . May. 20, 2022

The Nasdaq 100 has lost about -27 percent of its value so far this year. And the almost as technology-stock heavy S&P 500 isn’t far behind at roughly -18 percent. Throw in the collapse of the bond market—led by a near doubling of the benchmark 10-year Treasury bond yield—and it’s small wonder so many have already proclaimed a bear market is underway.

We won’t argue stocks aren’t due for one, given the last period that really qualified was back in 2007-09. And the worst inflation rate in over 40 years, China’s pandemic lockdowns, the increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve, fallout from Russia’s Ukraine invasion and signs consumer spending is slowing are certainly reasons for worry.

Equally, however, 2022 so far has been among the best of times for energy investors. Led by continuing gains in best in class oil and gas stocks, the S&P Energy Sector Index has returned better than 48 percent. And even sector laggards are revving their engines, with the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Oil Service Sector Index (OSX) higher by nearly 42 percent and the midstream laden Alerian MLP Index returning more than 20 percent.

Energy Commentary >>

  • US/EU Natural Gas Pact and Two New Portfolio Additions

    By Elliott H. Gue on Mar. 31, 2022

    You’ve probably seen the headlines about a deal between the US and European Union aimed at reducing Europe’s dependence on Russian fossil fuels.

    One centerpiece of this agreement, unveiled on March 25th, is a US promise to work with international partners to ensure additional liquefied natural gas (LNG) volumes of 15 billion cubic meters (BCM) of natural gas for 2022 with “expected increases going forward.”

    So, does this mean a surge in US natural gas prices and increased demand for US liquefied natural gas exports?

  • Talking China: There’s a Big Opportunity in Energy

    By Roger S. Conrad on Mar. 3, 2022

    The eyes of the world are on fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But energy investors would do well to instead check out my key takeaways from this week’s “U.S.-China Regional Dialogue Series: Forum on Innovation in Energy, the Environment and Sustainability.”

  • What Kinder’s Q3 Says About Midstream’s High Yields

    By Roger S. Conrad on Oct. 21, 2021

    Despite some setbacks, Kinder Morgan Inc. (NYSE: KMI) has adapted to where we are right now in the energy price cycle. But effective participation still requires discipline.

  • Midstream M&A’s Train Picks Up Steam

    By Roger S. Conrad on Jun. 4, 2021

    Too many small owners lacking critical scale and unprecedented roadblocks to new energy pipeline infrastructure: That’s what was at the core of the unprecedented wave of US oil and gas midstream dividend cuts and bankruptcies of the past few years. Now those same forces are spawning something considerably more positive for investors

  • Colonial Goes Down: What it Means for Pipeline Politics

    By Roger S. Conrad on May. 14, 2021

    There may come a day when US transportation is 100 percent electrified and homes are heated with blended hydrogen. But in the here and now, oil and gas pipelines are essential infrastructure. Exhibit A is the havoc wreaked by the successful hack of systems at the Colonial Pipeline this month.

Subscribers Only >>

  • Feature: Key Takeaways from Q1 Earnings and Guidance Updates

    By Elliott H. Gue on May. 20, 2022

    Q1 earnings reporting and guidance updates are now all in for our EIA Model Portfolio and High Yield Energy List recommendations. Here are the key takeaways for each of them.

    Note that we’ve broken our analysis into three sections for easier reference: MLPs and Midstream, Services and Producers.

  • Endangered Dividends List

    By Roger S. Conrad on May. 20, 2022

    We’re still waiting on our first 2022 dividend cut in the Energy and Income Advisor coverage universe, versus 93 companies that reduced payouts at least once during 2020 and 2021. That’s thanks to the immensely favorable combination of industry-wide financial conservatism since mid-2019 and the upturn in the energy cycle.

  • Portfolio: The Shift is On

    By Elliott H. Gue on May. 20, 2022

    Investment in new oil and natural gas production and supporting infrastructure continues to badly lag the level of previous cycles. That promises to keep supply in catch up mode to demand for years to come. And we expect both commodity prices and energy stocks to push out to new heights, well above even the highs achieved in the previous cycle.

  • Feature: Riding Canada’s Energy Comeback

    By Elliott H. Gue on Apr. 20, 2022

    Seven months ago, we highlighted five reasons for patient energy investors to take positions in best in class Canadian energy companies.

    To capitalize, we recommended two producers and three midstream companies. Two have been Model Portfolio stocks for many years: Pembina Pipeline (TSX: PPL, NYSE: PBA) and TC Energy (TSX: TRP, NYSE: TRP).

  • Endangered Dividends List

    By Roger S. Conrad on Apr. 20, 2022

    The number of 2022 dividend cuts in the Energy and Income Advisor coverage universe is still zero. That remains welcome news indeed versus the 93 companies that reduced their dividends at least once during 2020 and 2021. And it’s thanks to both the industry-wide financial conservatism since mid-2019 and the upturn in the energy cycle.

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  • Live Chat with

    Elliott and Roger on May. 25, 2022

  • Portfolios & Ratings

    • Model Portfolios

      Balanced portfolios of energy stocks for aggressive and conservative investors.

    • Producers and Drillers

      Our take on more than 50 energy-related equities, from upstream to downstream and everything in between.

    • MLPs and Midstream

      Our assessment of every energy-related master limited partnership.

    • International Coverage

      Roger Conrad’s coverage of more than 70 dividend-paying energy names.

    Experts

    • Elliott H. Gue

      Founder and Chief Analyst: Capitalist Times and Energy & Income Advisor

    • Roger S. Conrad

      Founder and Chief Analyst: Capitalist Times and Energy & Income Advisor