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A Recession Won’t Repeal the Energy Cycle

By  Roger S. Conrad
Issue No.208 . Jun. 17, 2022

Let’s be clear. Neither oil and gas prices nor energy stocks will be immune if the global economy slides into recession later this year. And damage to prices would be compounded if Russian, Iranian and/or Venezuelan oil re-enters the market in a meaningful way.

But that said, what the Federal Reserve and other central banks are attempting now to quell inflation will not end the energy up-cycle that began in spring 2020. Neither would a return to the market of supply from what are currently pariah countries.

In fact, any energy sector retreat we see in coming months is far more likely to result in the long-term cycle being both longer and stronger. And means much higher prices for favored stocks than we saw at the top of the up-cycle that ended in 2014.

Energy Commentary >>

  • US/EU Natural Gas Pact and Two New Portfolio Additions

    By Elliott H. Gue on Mar. 31, 2022

    You’ve probably seen the headlines about a deal between the US and European Union aimed at reducing Europe’s dependence on Russian fossil fuels.

    One centerpiece of this agreement, unveiled on March 25th, is a US promise to work with international partners to ensure additional liquefied natural gas (LNG) volumes of 15 billion cubic meters (BCM) of natural gas for 2022 with “expected increases going forward.”

    So, does this mean a surge in US natural gas prices and increased demand for US liquefied natural gas exports?

  • Talking China: There’s a Big Opportunity in Energy

    By Roger S. Conrad on Mar. 3, 2022

    The eyes of the world are on fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But energy investors would do well to instead check out my key takeaways from this week’s “U.S.-China Regional Dialogue Series: Forum on Innovation in Energy, the Environment and Sustainability.”

  • What Kinder’s Q3 Says About Midstream’s High Yields

    By Roger S. Conrad on Oct. 21, 2021

    Despite some setbacks, Kinder Morgan Inc. (NYSE: KMI) has adapted to where we are right now in the energy price cycle. But effective participation still requires discipline.

  • Midstream M&A’s Train Picks Up Steam

    By Roger S. Conrad on Jun. 4, 2021

    Too many small owners lacking critical scale and unprecedented roadblocks to new energy pipeline infrastructure: That’s what was at the core of the unprecedented wave of US oil and gas midstream dividend cuts and bankruptcies of the past few years. Now those same forces are spawning something considerably more positive for investors

  • Colonial Goes Down: What it Means for Pipeline Politics

    By Roger S. Conrad on May. 14, 2021

    There may come a day when US transportation is 100 percent electrified and homes are heated with blended hydrogen. But in the here and now, oil and gas pipelines are essential infrastructure. Exhibit A is the havoc wreaked by the successful hack of systems at the Colonial Pipeline this month.

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    • Portfolios & Ratings

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      Our take on more than 50 energy-related equities, from upstream to downstream and everything in between.

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      Our assessment of every energy-related master limited partnership.

    • International Coverage

      Roger Conrad’s coverage of more than 70 dividend-paying energy names.

    Experts

    • Elliott H. Gue

      Founder and Chief Analyst: Capitalist Times and Energy & Income Advisor

    • Roger S. Conrad

      Founder and Chief Analyst: Capitalist Times and Energy & Income Advisor