Around the Portfolios
Fourth-quarter earnings season was anything but uneventful for some of our Portfolio holdings.
Focus List Update: Holding Their Own
Our stock selection in the upstream segment has proved fortuitous in an earnings season where the market has punished companies that reported disappointing results and/or guidance.
US Shale Operators: Showing Restraint, Or Encountering Constraints?
In the past, we’ve argued (correctly) that market participants and investors who bet against the resilience and potential upside in US oil production do so at their own peril. However, with the market now accustomed to these upside surprises, investors shouldn’t overlook the potential constraints on US production growth.
Narrowing Our Focus
We narrow our Focus List and dig deep into our picks’ fourth-quarter results to kick the tires on our investment theses.
Focus List (Mostly) Outperforms and Portfolio Updates
The improved outlook for oil prices and the rotation into energy stocks has lifted most boats in the sector, though we’re pleased that nine of the 13 names on our Focus List have outperformed the S&P 500 Energy Index over an equivalent holding period. We review our Focus List and discuss earnings and other pertinent developments affecting our Portfolio holdings.
Profiting from Key Energy Trends in Canada, Australia and Mexico
We’re less than three weeks into 2018, but several notable trends have emerged affecting the names in our International Portfolio, which primarily comprises positions in Canadian and Australian energy companies. These developments bear watching and will create challenges and opportunities over the next 12 to 18 months.
Positioning the Portfolios for 2018
Many investors’ tax rates will come down in 2018, making the next few trading days your best opportunity for taking tax losses on any underwater positions that may take time to recover. With investors facing higher tax liabilities in 2017 than next year, the benefit of writing off a loser is that much greater.
Of course, we prefer to avoid taking any losses and run the Energy & Income Advisor Portfolios with an eye toward long-run returns. However, given the sector’s recent down-cycle and the topsy-turvy performance of many energy sub-industries over the past few years, we have a few positions that haven’t worked out because of timing issues or a faulty investment thesis. These sales will help to offset the handful of gains that we took over the course of the year.
Focus List: Upgrades and a Value Swap
We swap one value-oriented play on the Permian Basin for one that offers exposure to more near-term upside catalysts.
Two Acquisitions, Two Selloffs: Key Takeaways from Recent M&A Activity in the US Onshore Market
We explore the lessons from the market’s reaction to Oasis Petroleum’s recently announced asset purchase in the Permian Basin and Noble Midstream Partners LP’s new joint venture in the Denver-Julesburg Basin.
Focus List
We have increased our exposure to exploration and production companies in recent months, focusing on names with solid balance sheets and franchise assets that legitimately could live within cash flow. Third-quarter results from these companies were a mixed bag, though their stocks have rallied.
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Live Chat with
Elliott and Roger on Nov. 29, 2018
Portfolios & Ratings
Model Portfolios
Balanced portfolios of energy stocks for aggressive and conservative investors.
Coverage Universe
Our take on more than 50 energy-related equities, from upstream to downstream and everything in between.
MLP Ratings
Our assessment of every energy-related master limited partnership.
International Coverage Universe
Roger Conrad’s coverage of more than 70 dividend-paying energy names.
Experts
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Elliott H. Gue
Founder and Chief Analyst: Capitalist Times and Energy & Income Advisor
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Roger S. Conrad
Founder and Chief Analyst: Capitalist Times and Energy & Income Advisor