Why Energy Investors Shouldn’t Panic about Recent Weakness in Oil Prices
The potential for OPEC to scale back its production agreement doesn’t spell doom for oil prices.
Updated Outlook for Oil Prices
Although we became bullish on oil prices last summer when the commodity slipped into the $40s per barrel, our forecast for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to average between $60 and $65 per barrel appears conservative—especially in an environment where involuntary supply disruptions and robust demand growth could result in short-term spikes to $80 per barrel. We now expect WTI to spend most of its time between $60 and $70 per barrel in 2018 and Brent to range between $65 and $75 per barrel.
05/15/17: Thoughts on A Nine-Month Extension to OPEC and Non-OPEC Supply Cuts
Our take on Russia and Saudi Arabia’s announced support for a nine-month extension to the existing supply cuts agreed upon by OPEC and major non-OPEC producers.
11/04/16: Two New Portfolio Holdings and an Update on Oil prices
We added two Portfolio holdings in the most recent issue of Energy & Income Advisor. This Alert also updates our current thoughts on oil prices.
Outlook 2016: Energy Prices
Our calls on crude-oil prices over the past year have been spot on for the most part. Although our macro calls haven’t saved our Portfolios from the carnage, we have avoided many of the worst performers, used hedges to provide some upside protection and set ourselves up to profit from the down-cycle’s final chapters. Here’s what we see for the year ahead.
Bringing Clarity to a Fuzzy Big Picture
We explain why most geopolitical events will hold less sway over global oil prices in coming years and tackle other big-picture questions.
Lessons from the Past
We examine previous supply-driven down-cycles in oil prices and their implications for equity performance and stock selection in today’s market.
Timing the Cycle
Energy markets are cyclical. Although the specifics driving the recent upheaval in the energy patch may be unique, similar cycles have played out several times over the past century. These history lessons help to provide a working roadmap for navigating what’s ahead for oil prices and energy-related stocks.
The Oil Down-Cycle: Lessons from the Past
US oil prices would need to overshoot the levels supported by prevailing supply and demand conditions to prompt producers to idle rigs and reduce capital expenditures dramatically. Weak balance sheets and higher-cost asset bases will compel some operators to scale back.
This supply response in the US and elsewhere will signal that we’re near the bottom of the commodity cycle. The question investors must ask isn’t whether this will happen, but rather how long this process will take to occur.
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Elliott and Roger on Sep. 27, 2022
Portfolios & Ratings
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Our assessment of every energy-related master limited partnership.
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Roger Conrad’s coverage of more than 70 dividend-paying energy names.
Experts
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Elliott H. Gue
Founder and Chief Analyst: Capitalist Times and Energy & Income Advisor
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Roger S. Conrad
Founder and Chief Analyst: Capitalist Times and Energy & Income Advisor