Natural Gas Outlook and Portfolio Focus
The breakout of oil prices above $80 globally and $70 in North America have justifiably grabbed the headlines. But when it comes to most energy stocks, the outlook for natural gas is at least equally important to returns.
This issue of Energy and Income Advisor, we highlight current natural gas market dynamics and our near and longer-term forecast for supply, demand and prices. We then zero in on developments at several of the more natural gas heavy names in our EIA Actively Managed Portfolio and Focus List.
The Outlook for Gas
Since the end of 2011, the average weekly closing price for front-month US natural gas futures is roughly $3.15/MMBtu, in-line with the current price of $3.12/MMBtu. In the short term, US gas storage levels are at the lowest levels in 15 years, supply growth is constrained and demand remains robust. That could lead to a spike in NYMEX gas futures to $4/MMBtu or higher this winter.
Electric Vehicles: Best Investment Ideas for the Transition
We run through a number of industries with leverage to the electricification of transportation, highlighting potential pitfalls for investors to avoid and the businesses that offer the most near-term upside.
Profiting from Key Energy Trends in Canada, Australia and Mexico
We’re less than three weeks into 2018, but several notable trends have emerged affecting the names in our International Portfolio, which primarily comprises positions in Canadian and Australian energy companies. These developments bear watching and will create challenges and opportunities over the next 12 to 18 months.
MLPs: Review and Outlook
We explain why we remain selectively bullish on master limited partnerships in 2018, discuss key opportunities and areas of risk, analyze trends in mergers and acquisitions, and highlight our favorite picks for the coming year.
Positioning the Portfolios for 2018
Many investors’ tax rates will come down in 2018, making the next few trading days your best opportunity for taking tax losses on any underwater positions that may take time to recover. With investors facing higher tax liabilities in 2017 than next year, the benefit of writing off a loser is that much greater.
Of course, we prefer to avoid taking any losses and run the Energy & Income Advisor Portfolios with an eye toward long-run returns. However, given the sector’s recent down-cycle and the topsy-turvy performance of many energy sub-industries over the past few years, we have a few positions that haven’t worked out because of timing issues or a faulty investment thesis. These sales will help to offset the handful of gains that we took over the course of the year.
Paradigm Shift in MLP Land
Big changes are afoot in the midstream segment. Many master limited partnerships appear to have taken Enterprise Products Partners LP’s lead and shifted their focus to building distribution coverage and reducing equity. We explore which names will be able to make this transition with relative ease and which names face more of a slog to put themselves on a path to sustainability.
International Review
We break down some of the major themes and opportunities in Canada and Australia’s energy patches, including consolidation in the oil sands, ongoing takeaway constraints in Alberta and restrictions on LNG exports.
Deal Flow Accelerates In Cotton Valley And Haynesville Shale
Enterprise Products Partners LP’s acquisition of Azure Midstream Partners LP’s gas-gathering and -processing assets marked the latest in a series of deals involving assets in the resurgent Haynesville Shale and the emerging Cotton Valley play. We explore what it all means and whether it’s worth placing a bet.
Focus List Update And Noteworthy Portfolio Developments
Since its reinstatement in early December 2016, the Energy & Income Advisor Focus List has generated an average total return of 9.6 percent, outperforming the S&P 500 Energy Index’s average loss of 4.5 percent over an equivalent holding period. We dig into fourth-quarter results from companies on our Focus List and in our Model Portfolios.
Live Chat with
Elliott and Roger on Aug. 31, 2020
Portfolios & Ratings
Model Portfolios
Balanced portfolios of energy stocks for aggressive and conservative investors.
Producers and Drillers
Our take on more than 50 energy-related equities, from upstream to downstream and everything in between.
MLPs and Midstream
Our assessment of every energy-related master limited partnership.
International Coverage
Roger Conrad’s coverage of more than 70 dividend-paying energy names.
Experts
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Elliott H. Gue
Founder and Chief Analyst: Capitalist Times and Energy & Income Advisor
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Roger S. Conrad
Founder and Chief Analyst: Capitalist Times and Energy & Income Advisor