Recent improvements in global oil inventories and stronger-than-expected demand growth have bolstered oil prices—especially outside the US—and prompted value-focused investors to return to cyclical segments of the energy sector.
Meanwhile, the Energy Information Administration’s downward revisions to its outlook for US oil output and the decline in the oil-directed rig count have provided early indications that drilling and completion activity may obey the speed limits imposed by commodity prices.
Although these trends have lifted upstream-related energy stocks in recent weeks, the break-neck volatility of the past few years and the likelihood of shorter cycles in the energy sector argue for diversification into secular growth stories that depend less on commodity prices and timing your entry and exit points.
This approach has served us well over the years, with our exposure to that own renewable-energy capacity delivering particularly strong returns relative to the S&P 500 Energy Index over our extended holding periods.
To varying degrees, all the stocks that we highlighted in December 2014 that stood to benefit from lower oil prices also outperformed in a challenging tape. (See The Demand Side Beckons.)
We cashed out of Portfolio holdings Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) and Royal Caribbean Cruises (Oslo: RCL, NYSE: RCL) for solid gains in November 2015, while anyone who followed our lead on Casey’s General Stores (NSDQ: CASY), Alimentation Couch-Tard (TSX: ATD/B, OTC: AQUNF) and Berry Global (NYSE: BERY) also fared well. (See Trimming Some of Our Hedges.)
With oil prices likely to range between $40 and $60 per barrel over the next few years, our playbook for late 2014 and early 2015 no longer holds the same appeal. At the same time, many of the renewable-energy companies in our Portfolios have rallied above our buy targets.
Fortunately, the ever-shifting energy landscape isn’t bereft of secular growth stories, including the specialized engineering and construction company and precision-power specialist highlighted in this issue.
Your complete guide to energy investing, from growth stocks to high-yielders.
In October 2012, renowned energy expert Elliott Gue launched the Energy & Income Advisor, a twice-monthly investment advisory that's dedicated to unearthing the most profitable opportunities in the sector, from growth stocks to high-yielding utilities, royalty trusts and master limited partnerships.
Elliott and Roger on Sep. 27, 2022