One of the simplest ways to monitor the health of the global oil market is to watch the shape of the oil futures curve. Since the end of October, we’ve seen one of the fastest and most dramatic shifts in the futures curve in the past 20 years.
A futures curve is nothing more than a graphical depiction of oil futures prices for delivery over time. For example, as we pen this issue, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for delivery in January 2021 is $44.53/bbl, in May 2021 it’s about $45.00/bbl and in February 2022 it’s $44.39/bbl.
The green curve on my chart is the futures curve on the last trading day in October and the brown curve is the same curve for WTI intraday on December 1, 2020.
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Elliott and Roger on Jan. 29, 2021
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