Q. What development from 2020 will have the greatest impact on energy returns in 2021?
EG: The big oil collapse in Q2 2020 is the key development this year that’s completely reset the supply equation for 2021 and beyond. It’s important to remember that about a year ago in early 2020, Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices were trading in the high $60’s and low $60’s/bbl respectively. In April, WTI collapsed to negative prices while Brent broke below $20/bbl for the first time since early 2002. Of course, in the short-run, the biggest impact from COVID-19 –the impact was actually from government mandates and movement restrictions to “contain” the virus – was on the demand side.
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Elliott and Roger on Jan. 29, 2021
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