Q: Last issue, you guys presented a pretty convincing argument based on supply and demand factors that we should expect global oil prices to generally hold the same trading range of the past few years—and that this would actually be a positive upside catalyst for energy stocks going forward. What’s your game plan for taking advantage?
EG: The best way to look at this question is to study historical precedent from past energy cycles and consider that the current market is analogous to the year 2002 or 2003 for crude oil prices.
Look at a chart of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and you’ll see that oil prices actually bottomed in December 1998 at $10.35 per barrel. Prices then rallied up to the high $30’s/bbl by the end of 2000 only to remain under that $40/bbl level until late-2004/early 2005.
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Elliott and Roger on Mar. 31, 2020
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