Feature Article

Where there’s smoke there’s fire is the old saying. And in light of the rash of dividend cuts and severe selloff of higher yielding energy companies in the second half of 2018, it’s easy to conclude as many investors have that the entire sector is finished as an income source.

Q: Why will the energy sector outperform in 2019? Will it matter if the overall market has a bad year?

Roger Conrad (RC): In my experience, no sector can wholly withstand an overall market meltdown, particularly if it brings a recession with it. And as if we needed a reminder, the last four plus years have shown quite clearly that energy is a cyclical business.

That said, the economy’s still growing by any useful measuring stick. This remains one of the slowest tightening cycles for the Federal Reserve I know of.

Since the end of September, WTI and Brent oil prices have experienced one of the most violent and rapid sell-offs in history.

Over the short term, energy stocks typically follow commodity prices particularly on the downside. Thus, the S&P 500 Energy Index is off 19.6% this quarter, the Alerian MLP Index is down about 12.8%, the SPDR Oil & Gas ETF (NYSE: XOP) is down 34.8% and the Philadelphia Oil Services Index (OSX) has plummeted over 40% led on the downside by the deepwater and onshore contract drillers.

How have MLPs recommended in Energy and Income Advisor fared year-to-date? Is there any reason to expect a better performance in 2019?

The table “EIA Energy MLP Performance” highlights master limited partnerships recommended in three places: Our Actively Managed Portfolio, the Focus List and the “legacy” portfolios that we continue to track on the EIA website.

Are you concerned by the large number of energy company dividend cuts we seem to be seeing this earnings season? – Roger Conrad: Let’s get one thing straight right up front. There’s no such thing as a “good” dividend cut. When a company reduces its payout, investors lose income and share prices typically fall to reflect the lower amount. That’s why we want to avoid stocks at risk of dividend cuts and it’s the reason we have an Endangered Dividends List.