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  • Roger S. Conrad

Feature Article

New Picks for Big Gains

One of the simplest ways to monitor the health of the global oil market is to watch the shape of the oil futures curve. Since the end of October, we’ve seen one of the fastest and most dramatic shifts in the futures curve in the past 20 years.

Endangered Dividends List

There have been no additional dividend cuts in our Energy and Income Advisor coverage universe since the previous issue posted. Unfortunately, that’s the result of being in between quarterly earnings reporting and dividend declaration dates, rather than any real signs of strength from the companies on our list.

We have become more confident in the ability of several EDL companies to hold payouts level in 2021. That’s induced us to upgrade them to buys, despite remaining risk.

Portfolio: Surveying November Gains and a Tax Loss Strategy

Despite backing off about 7 percent on the last day of the month, shares of Concho Resources (NYSE: CXO) finished November up nearly 40 percent from where they started. The rally followed a solid Q3 earnings report in late October, which was released about a week after the announcement that ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) would acquire the company at the ratio of 1.46 COP per share of CXO.

Endangered Dividends List

Three companies on our Endangered Dividends List slashed their payouts since the previous issue went to post. None of these moves was unexpected, but only Energy Transfer’s (NYSE: ET) 50 percent reduction was enough for the company to escape the EDL. Still a member of our High Yield Energy List, the company’s generally positive Q3 results and guidance are highlighted in the Feature article.

Portfolio: An Update on Strategy

Barring a recovery rally of unprecedented magnitude, it seems certain 2020 will go down as one of the worst years ever for oil and gas stocks, up and down the energy value chain.

Fallout from the pandemic temporarily knocked the bottom out of demand for refined products and fuels and turned a strategic retreat by producers into a full-on rout. And wild campaign rhetoric alleging an impending ban on hydraulic fracturing certainly didn’t help investors’ fear factor.

First Thoughts on Q3 Results.

When you’re gearing up to ride a prospective recovery in a battered sector, it’s critical to be sure you’re riding the swiftest and surest horses. And that means keeping an eagle eye on individual company performance. Here are our initial takeaways from the Q3 earnings reports and guidance updates we’ve seen.

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  • Live Chat with

    Elliott and Roger on Mar. 25, 2021

  • Portfolios & Ratings

    • Model Portfolios

      Balanced portfolios of energy stocks for aggressive and conservative investors.

    • Producers and Drillers

      Our take on more than 50 energy-related equities, from upstream to downstream and everything in between.

    • MLPs and Midstream

      Our assessment of every energy-related master limited partnership.

    • International Coverage

      Roger Conrad’s coverage of more than 70 dividend-paying energy names.

    Experts

    • Elliott H. Gue

      Founder and Chief Analyst: Capitalist Times and Energy & Income Advisor

    • Roger S. Conrad

      Founder and Chief Analyst: Capitalist Times and Energy & Income Advisor