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Feature Article

The Outlook for Gas

Since the end of 2011, the average weekly closing price for front-month US natural gas futures is roughly $3.15/MMBtu, in-line with the current price of $3.12/MMBtu. In the short term, US gas storage levels are at the lowest levels in 15 years, supply growth is constrained and demand remains robust. That could lead to a spike in NYMEX gas futures to $4/MMBtu or higher this winter.

Roundtable: Our Views On Super Majors

Talking Point #1: What’s your general view of the super major oils at this time?

• Roger Conrad (RC): I became a shareholder of Chevron Corp (NYSE: CVX) when it acquired the former Texaco, which I believe was actually the first stock I ever bought. I was fresh out of business school and made an investment in Texaco’s dividend reinvestment plan, and I’m happy to report that I literally make more in dividends every year than my original investment.

Model Portfolios: Simplifying our Strategy

Starting in September, we’re taking a giant step to simplify our Energy and Income Advisor Portfolio strategy.

Our 3 Model Portfolios are divided into “Conservative” and “Aggressive” Holdings. The Conservative stocks are intended to be bedrock positions, where our objective is long-term capital appreciation and in most cases a rising stream of income. The Aggressive stocks carry more risk but also more upside potential and often very high yields to reward your wait.

Roundtable: Our Views on Q2 Earnings, Picking Permian Basin Targets, MLP Corporate Conversion, 2018 Political Risks and More

Talking Point #1: The Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico

– Roger Conrad (RC): Elliott, a lot has happened in the energy sector since the Roundtable discussion you and I had following MLP & Energy Infrastructure Conference. But the most striking development to me is how, despite what seems to be an endless legion of skeptics, the action in the Permian Basin just keeps heating up.

A 30,000 Foot View of the Global Energy Industry Today

Oil services giants Halliburton (NYSE: HAL) and Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB) are two of the most important energy companies to watch during quarterly earnings season.
That’s not because they’re the biggest companies in the energy patch; after all, super oil Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) is nearly 4 times the size of Schlumberger by market capitalization. However, no companies have more insight into trends in the global energy industry, new technologies gaining traction in the field and producer activity levels than these two firms.

Canada’s Landlocked Energy Is Finding a Market

Surging US energy production from shale formations has been the bane of Canadian energy producers for more than a decade.

The proof is in the prices. Western Canada Select crude oil recently sold for $26 less per barrel than the WTI US benchmark, and that differential has been as wide as $40 in recent years. Canadian natural gas at the AECO hub has fetched less than $1 per thousand cubic feet for long stretches and today is barely one-third the benchmark price at Henry Hub in Texas.

WCS’ heavier oil mix accounts for some of its discount. But transportation constraints are by far the biggest contributor. And the more the US pumps, the more Canadian oil and gas is crowded off North American pipelines, rails and trucking networks.

Earnings Reporting Season Raises Risk

Our EIA Endangered Dividends List highlights companies in our coverage universe where dividends are at elevated risk of being cut for one or more of the following reasons:

  • Cash flow coverage of distributions is inadequate.
  • Elevated debt levels with imminent refinancing needs.
  • Revenue pressure triggered by weakness for at least one key asset.
  • Inability to access the equity market on favorable terms to fund capital spending, forcing management to utilize more internally generated cash flow.
  • Exposure to volatility in commodity margins from either rising or falling prices of raw materials.
  • Aggressive general partners anxious to buy in limited partners’ cash flows at discounted prices.
  • Regulatory reversals.
  • Expiring contracts with little hope for renewals at comparable rates.

Most of the companies on our list suffer from more than one of these afflictions.

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  • Live Chat with

    Elliott and Roger on Jan. 29, 2019

  • Portfolios & Ratings

    • Model Portfolios

      Balanced portfolios of energy stocks for aggressive and conservative investors.

    • Coverage Universe

      Our take on more than 50 energy-related equities, from upstream to downstream and everything in between.

    • MLP Ratings

      Our assessment of every energy-related master limited partnership.

    • International Coverage Universe

      Roger Conrad’s coverage of more than 70 dividend-paying energy names.

    Experts

    • Elliott H. Gue

      Founder and Chief Analyst: Capitalist Times and Energy & Income Advisor

    • Roger S. Conrad

      Founder and Chief Analyst: Capitalist Times and Energy & Income Advisor