Let’s be clear. Neither oil and gas prices nor energy stocks will be immune if the global economy slides into recession later this year. And damage to prices would be compounded if Russian, Iranian and/or Venezuelan oil re-enters the market in a meaningful way.

But that said, what the Federal Reserve and other central banks are attempting now to quell inflation will not end the energy up-cycle that began in spring 2020. Neither would a return to the market of supply from what are currently pariah countries.

In fact, any energy sector retreat we see in coming months is far more likely to result in the long-term cycle being both longer and stronger. And means much higher prices for favored stocks than we saw at the top of the up-cycle that ended in 2014.

We’re now roughly two years into the energy upcycle—which began with North American benchmark oil prices actually in negative territory.

For most of that time, it’s paid to focus solely on the very best in class. They were the only energy stocks that were still profitable at the bottom. They were first to adjust to the current environment. And they were able to build market share during the downturn, even while less adept rivals were slashing dividends and filing for bankruptcy.