Energy: Ready, Set, Buy!
Since our previous issue of Energy and Income Advisor, oil prices have ticked back over $50 a barrel. And the combination of last year’s literal industry-wide investment freeze with energy demand rising faster than expected means they’ll stay there in 2021, with a possible run into the 60s at some point.
How much of what we’ve already seen for energy prices is priced into sector stocks? The last time oil was firmly over $50, back in February 2020, Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE: EPD) traded roughly one-third higher than it does now. The same was true for fellow Model Portfolio holding ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM).
So was high quality midstream Magellan Midstream Partners (NYSE: MMP). So were leading oilfield services company Schlumberger Ltd (NYSE: SLB) and Concho Resources (NYSE: CXO), which fetched what’s since become a high premium takeover bid from ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP).
Endangered Dividends List
There were no dividend cuts announced in our coverage universes since the previous issue of Energy and Income Advisor.
Endangered Dividends List
There were no dividend cuts announced in our coverage universes since the previous issue of Energy and Income Advisor. That’s because declaration dates for winter payouts aren’t until next month. But there is growing reason to expect far fewer reductions this year than in 2020, or in fact any year since oil prices first broke under $100 per barrel for the cycle back in mid-2014.
Portfolio: From the Bottom Up
Brookfield Renewable Corporation (NYSE: BEPC)—the C-Corp spinoff of Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners (NYSE: BEP)—has returned nearly 110 percent since hitting the market on July 24. That pairs with the more than 70 percent return in Brookfield’s limited partnership units.
Eyes on the Energy Cycle
Sustained crude oil prices in the $50 to $60 per barrel range next year might not sound like a big deal. In fact, it wouldn’t represent much of a gain from the mid-to-high 40s range held by North American benchmarks lately. And Brent crude is already mostly there, depending on what measurement you use.
A return to that level of oil prices in 2021 would, however, represent a massive change from the environment of the past year. And it would be a major departure from the generally downtrending direction of prices since the energy bear market began way back in 2014.
More important, our view is 50s oil would also be a powerful catalyst for a shift in investor psychology regards the energy sector. It’s true that we’ve seen that level before many times in the past six years. And while a bounce to $50 plus was enough for many energy stocks to stage a big recovery in 2016-17, staying there wasn’t to prevent flat lining and later falling share from second half 2019 into 2020.
Endangered Dividends List
Navios Maritime Acquisition (NYSE: NNA) is the latest company on our Endangered Dividends List to reduce its dividend. As of the February 10 payment date, the new quarterly rate will be 5 cents a share, down from 30 cents a share paid out in early October.
Pipeline Politics: We’re Guardedly Optimistic
This week, the incoming Biden administration filled out much of its prospective energy and environment team with pragmatists,signaling a focus on incremental measures rather than the dramatic and disruptive.
Endangered Dividends List
There have been no additional dividend cuts in our Energy and Income Advisor coverage universe since the previous issue posted. Unfortunately, that’s the result of being in between quarterly earnings reporting and dividend declaration dates, rather than any real signs of strength from the companies on our list.
We have become more confident in the ability of several EDL companies to hold payouts level in 2021. That’s induced us to upgrade them to buys, despite remaining risk.
Portfolio: Surveying November Gains and a Tax Loss Strategy
Despite backing off about 7 percent on the last day of the month, shares of Concho Resources (NYSE: CXO) finished November up nearly 40 percent from where they started. The rally followed a solid Q3 earnings report in late October, which was released about a week after the announcement that ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) would acquire the company at the ratio of 1.46 COP per share of CXO.
Of Earnings and Elections
Ok, we’ll admit it. Keeping up with the current daily news feed of election results is far more exciting than scouring companies’ Q3 earnings for clues on their business health. And if you’re a media outlet, Elections 2020 has been the gift that keeping on giving.
But when it comes to positioning for an energy sector comeback in 2021, your time is going to be much better spent focusing on key numbers and management guidance. In fact, we doubt results of this election will wind up mattering much if at all when it comes to investor returns for the stocks we recommend here in Energy and Income Advisor.
Live Chat with
Elliott and Roger on Jan. 29, 2021
Portfolios & Ratings
Model Portfolios
Balanced portfolios of energy stocks for aggressive and conservative investors.
Producers and Drillers
Our take on more than 50 energy-related equities, from upstream to downstream and everything in between.
MLPs and Midstream
Our assessment of every energy-related master limited partnership.
International Coverage
Roger Conrad’s coverage of more than 70 dividend-paying energy names.
Experts
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Elliott H. Gue
Founder and Chief Analyst: Capitalist Times and Energy & Income Advisor
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Roger S. Conrad
Founder and Chief Analyst: Capitalist Times and Energy & Income Advisor