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Elliott Gue knows energy. Since earning his bachelor’s and master’s degrees from the University of London, Elliott has dedicated himself to learning the ins and outs of this dynamic sector, scouring trade magazines, attending industry conferences, touring facilities and meeting with management teams.

Elliott Gue’s knowledge of the energy sector and prescient investment calls prompted the official program of the 2008 G-8 Summit in Tokyo to call him “the world’s leading energy strategist.”

He has also appeared on CNBC and Bloomberg TV and has been quoted in a number of major publications, including Barron’s, Forbes and the Washington Post. Elliott Gue’s expertise and track record of success have also made him a sought-after speaker at MoneyShows and events hosted by the Association of Individual Investors.

Elliott Gue also contributed chapters on developments in global energy markets to two books published by the FT Press, The Silk Road to Riches: How You Can Profit by Investing in Asia’s Newfound Prosperity and Rise of the State: Profitable Investing and Geopolitics in the 21st Century.

Prior to founding the Capitalist Times, Elliott Gue shared his expertise and stock-picking abilities with individual investors in two highly regarded research publications, MLP Profits and The Energy Strategist, as well as long-running financial advisory Personal Finance.

In October 2012, Elliott Gue launched the Energy & Income Advisor, a semimonthly online newsletter that’s dedicated to uncovering the most profitable opportunities in the energy sector, from growth stocks to high-yielding utilities, royalty trusts and master limited partnerships.

The masthead may have changed, but subscribers can expect Elliott Gue to deliver the same high-quality analysis and rational assessment of investment opportunities in the energy patch.


08/24/15: Black Monday — A Shot Across the Bow

The energy sector has been in a bear market for almost a year, though the brief relief rally earlier this year gave some investors false hope of a V-shaped recovery. Today’s selloff in the broader market doesn’t change our investment strategy, though it does give investors an opportunity to add some of our hedges at a cheaper price.

Ripping Off the Band-Aid

Throughout the energy sector’s recovery rally earlier this year (a false spring), we warned of a second leg down for crude-oil prices, with the selling pressure intensifying in fall and winter, when refineries usually shutter some of their capacity for maintenance and upgrades.

Valero Energy Corp (NYSE: VLO) and other refiners have warned that this year’s turnaround season could involve more outages than usual because the industry ran flat out in the spring and summer to take advantage of robust demand for gasoline and favorable crack spreads.

And even after record refinery runs and gasoline demand this summer, resilient production and overseas imports have ensured that US crude-oil inventories remain about 26 percent above their five-year average for this time of year.

This overhang, coupled with the prospect of reduced demand, suggests that oil prices could suffer significant downside this fall. Albeit painful, such a correction could accelerate the process of squeezing production from marginal acreage and ratchet up the pressure on those with stretched balance sheets.

The potential for crude-oil prices to slip into the $30s per barrel (and perhaps even lower), coupled with slowing production growth in some basins and outright shrinkage in others, suggests that the energy sector could be in for more pain this fall and into early 2016.

Exploration and production companies likely face the most downside in this scenario, and we would continue to steer clear of onshore and offshore contract drillers and other equipment providers. Even midstream master limited partnerships face near-term uncertainties related to counterparty and volumetric risk.

However, we remain bullish on US oil and gas production over the next three to four years, as we expect reductions in non-OPEC drilling activity and reduced capital expenditures in international markets to create an opportunity for short-cycle shale plays to fill the gap and win market share.

Rest assured, there’s more pain coming for the energy sector in the near term, creating a real buying opportunity for investors with a longer time horizon. Keep your powder dry and your head level.

The View from the Oil-Field Services Industry

Schlumberger’s wide-ranging earnings calls have long provided investors with useful insights into bigger-picture trends and developments affecting the energy value chain, thanks to the firm’s forthright management team and the breadth of its oil-field service offerings. In these uncertain times, investors should heed CEO Paal Kibsgaard comments on the supply-demand balance in global oil markets and the various forces pushing and pulling crude prices.

07/28/15: July Live Chat

Elliott Gue and Roger Conrad will host the Energy & Income Advisor’s  next Live Chat on July 28, 2015, at 2:00 p.m. ET. This is your opportunity to ask questions about the latest developments in the economy and energy patch.

Oil Prices: Still Lower for Longer

In the Dec. 25, 2013, issue of Energy & Income AdvisorCommodity Price Outlook for 2014, we made the following prognostication:

With North American production of light sweet crude oil on the rise, investors should gird themselves for bouts of volatility that could entail a short-lived drop in WTI [West Texas Intermediate]—potentially to less than $80 per barrel.

At the time, we didn’t foresee a selloff as severe as the one that rocked the industry last fall; rather, we thought oil prices would come under more pressure than usual during periods of seasonal refinery outages.

We also worried that surging US production eventually could overwhelm domestic refiners’ capacity to process volumes of light, sweet crude oil.

But we still took steps to reduce the Portfolio’s risk, cashing out of SeaDrill (NYSE: SDRL) in fall 2013 and selling fracking sand specialist Hi-Crush Partners LP (NYSE: HCLP) in spring 2014 for a roughly 60 percent gain.

We also reiterated our Sell call on SeaDrill, a stock we first highlighted in 2007, on several occasions in 2014 and added American Airlines (NSDQ: AAL) to the Model Portfolio as a hedge against lower oil prices in January 2014. (See Why SeaDrill Still Rates a SellFive Myths about SeaDrill That Could Cost You Real Money and Buy the Friendly Skies.)

Last fall, we warned that the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil could slip to as low as $40 per barrel in early in 2015 and that further loosening in the supply-demand balance could depress prices to as low as $30 per barrel.

Although WTI hasn’t pulled back to this nadir, our forecast—reiterated in numerous issues of Energy & Income Advisor—for crude-oil prices to remain lower for longer has more important implications for investors.

Our outlook calls for WTI price to range between $40 and $60 per barrel for most of 2016—a forecast that we’ve reiterated numerous times during our monthly Live Chats.

Crude-oil prices enjoyed a brief relief rally from mid-March to early May, fueled by profit-taking and higher refinery utilization rates in anticipation of the summer driving season, a period of peak demand.

But elevated inventory levels in the US and the prospect of refinery outages for regular maintenance and upgrades has sent WTI lower in recent weeks.

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  • Live Chat with

    Elliott and Roger on Mar. 20, 2018

  • Portfolios & Ratings

    • Model Portfolios

      Balanced portfolios of energy stocks for aggressive and conservative investors.

    • Coverage Universe

      Our take on more than 50 energy-related equities, from upstream to downstream and everything in between.

    • MLP Ratings

      Our assessment of every energy-related master limited partnership.

    • International Coverage Universe

      Roger Conrad’s coverage of more than 70 dividend-paying energy names.


    • Roger S. Conrad

      Founder and Chief Analyst: Capitalist Times and Energy & Income Advisor

    • Elliott H. Gue

      Founder and Chief Analyst: Capitalist Times and Energy & Income Advisor

    • Peter Staas

      Managing Editor: Capitalist Times and Energy & Income Advisor