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Elliott Gue knows energy. Since earning his bachelor’s and master’s degrees from the University of London, Elliott has dedicated himself to learning the ins and outs of this dynamic sector, scouring trade magazines, attending industry conferences, touring facilities and meeting with management teams.

Elliott Gue’s knowledge of the energy sector and prescient investment calls prompted the official program of the 2008 G-8 Summit in Tokyo to call him “the world’s leading energy strategist.”

He has also appeared on CNBC and Bloomberg TV and has been quoted in a number of major publications, including Barron’s, Forbes and the Washington Post. Elliott Gue’s expertise and track record of success have also made him a sought-after speaker at MoneyShows and events hosted by the Association of Individual Investors.

Elliott Gue also contributed chapters on developments in global energy markets to two books published by the FT Press, The Silk Road to Riches: How You Can Profit by Investing in Asia’s Newfound Prosperity and Rise of the State: Profitable Investing and Geopolitics in the 21st Century.

Prior to founding the Capitalist Times, Elliott Gue shared his expertise and stock-picking abilities with individual investors in two highly regarded research publications, MLP Profits and The Energy Strategist, as well as long-running financial advisory Personal Finance.

In October 2012, Elliott Gue launched the Energy & Income Advisor, a semimonthly online newsletter that’s dedicated to uncovering the most profitable opportunities in the energy sector, from growth stocks to high-yielding utilities, royalty trusts and master limited partnerships.

The masthead may have changed, but subscribers can expect Elliott Gue to deliver the same high-quality analysis and rational assessment of investment opportunities in the energy patch.

Articles

07/28/15: July Live Chat

Elliott Gue and Roger Conrad will host the Energy & Income Advisor’s  next Live Chat on July 28, 2015, at 2:00 p.m. ET. This is your opportunity to ask questions about the latest developments in the economy and energy patch.

Oil Prices: Still Lower for Longer

In the Dec. 25, 2013, issue of Energy & Income AdvisorCommodity Price Outlook for 2014, we made the following prognostication:

With North American production of light sweet crude oil on the rise, investors should gird themselves for bouts of volatility that could entail a short-lived drop in WTI [West Texas Intermediate]—potentially to less than $80 per barrel.

At the time, we didn’t foresee a selloff as severe as the one that rocked the industry last fall; rather, we thought oil prices would come under more pressure than usual during periods of seasonal refinery outages.

We also worried that surging US production eventually could overwhelm domestic refiners’ capacity to process volumes of light, sweet crude oil.

But we still took steps to reduce the Portfolio’s risk, cashing out of SeaDrill (NYSE: SDRL) in fall 2013 and selling fracking sand specialist Hi-Crush Partners LP (NYSE: HCLP) in spring 2014 for a roughly 60 percent gain.

We also reiterated our Sell call on SeaDrill, a stock we first highlighted in 2007, on several occasions in 2014 and added American Airlines (NSDQ: AAL) to the Model Portfolio as a hedge against lower oil prices in January 2014. (See Why SeaDrill Still Rates a SellFive Myths about SeaDrill That Could Cost You Real Money and Buy the Friendly Skies.)

Last fall, we warned that the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil could slip to as low as $40 per barrel in early in 2015 and that further loosening in the supply-demand balance could depress prices to as low as $30 per barrel.

Although WTI hasn’t pulled back to this nadir, our forecast—reiterated in numerous issues of Energy & Income Advisor—for crude-oil prices to remain lower for longer has more important implications for investors.

Our outlook calls for WTI price to range between $40 and $60 per barrel for most of 2016—a forecast that we’ve reiterated numerous times during our monthly Live Chats.

Crude-oil prices enjoyed a brief relief rally from mid-March to early May, fueled by profit-taking and higher refinery utilization rates in anticipation of the summer driving season, a period of peak demand.

But elevated inventory levels in the US and the prospect of refinery outages for regular maintenance and upgrades has sent WTI lower in recent weeks.

06/25/15: June Live Chat

Elliott Gue and Roger Conrad will host the Energy & Income Advisor’s  next Live Chat on June 25, 2015, at 2:00 p.m. ET. This is your opportunity to ask questions about the latest developments in the economy and energy patch.

LNG Market Update: Near-Term Volatility, Long-Term Opportunity

When natural gas is cooled to minus 260 degrees Fahrenheit at a liquefaction facility, the fuel condenses to roughly 1/600th of its original volume, facilitating overseas transport in specially designed ships.

Regasification terminals heat the liquefied natural gas (LNG) to restore the delivered volumes to a gaseous state before pipelines transmit the product to end users.

This network of LNG carriers and import and export terminals effectively releases natural gas from the geographical constraints of the pipeline network, enabling producers to deliver their output to overseas end markets.

In recent years, investors have become obsessed with the wide price differential between US and Asian natural-gas prices and the potential for meaningful LNG exports to provide a much-needed release valve for the oversupplied North American market.

However, the start-up of Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE: XOM) and Oil Search’s (ASX: OSH, OTC: OISHY) LNG export project in Papua New Guinea, coupled with lower-than-expected Chinese demand growth and a mild winter in Northeast Asia, has led to a regional oversupply in the spot market.

Over the next two years, the start-up of other massive LNG export facilities in Australia and on the US Gulf Coast will exacerbate this emergent oversupply, intensifying competition among suppliers and redirect flexible volumes from Qatar and other producers back to Europe, the market of last resort.

At the same time, most long-term LNG supply contracts with Asian buyers allow for regular price resets based on movements in the Japanese crude cocktail, or the monthly average price of a basket of imported crude oils.

Second-quarter results for LNG buyers and sellers that operate primarily in the Asia-Pacific region should reflect the full effect of the severe downdraft in crude-oil prices; the price reset mechanism included in these oil-indexed supply agreements usually occurs on a three- to six-month lag.

With the global LNG market shifting into an oversupply after a period of tightness, we’ve updated our macro outlook for this niche business and revisited opportunities on the supply side to identify the best bets for investors seeking exposure to this theme.

  • Live Chat with

    Elliott and Roger on Jul. 28, 2015

  • Portfolios & Ratings

    • Model Portfolios

      Balanced portfolios of energy stocks for aggressive and conservative investors.

    • Coverage Universe

      Our take on more than 50 energy-related equities, from upstream to downstream and everything in between.

    • MLP Ratings

      Our assessment of every energy-related master limited partnership.

    • International Coverage Universe

      Roger Conrad’s coverage of more than 70 dividend-paying energy names.

    Experts

    • Roger S. Conrad

      Founder and Chief Analyst: Capitalist Times and Energy & Income Advisor

    • Elliott H. Gue

      Founder and Chief Analyst: Capitalist Times and Energy & Income Advisor

    • Peter Staas

      Managing Editor: Capitalist Times and Energy & Income Advisor