In the December 19, 2018 issue of Energy & Income Advisor “Oil: It’s Not 2014,” we took a deep-dive look at the global oil market and came to the following conclusion:
“While it’s tough to catch the proverbial falling knife or call an exact bottom in crude, we believe oil is approaching a crucial bottom and will recover into the first half of 2019. Specifically, we could see Brent rallying back over $70/bbl and WTI reaching the mid $60’s by the second quarter of 2019.
Longer term, we continue to believe the global oil market has a supply problem. The total lack of investment in new long-cycle supplies – large deepwater and international oil field projects – over the past few years will ultimately lead to an air pocket of supply and a spike in oil prices.”
— Oil: It’s Not 2014 Energy & Income Advisor December 19, 2018
At the time, our bullish call on oil prices was decidedly out of consensus — West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices had fallen from early October highs near $77 to close on December 19th at $47.20/bbl while Brent fell from $86.74/bbl to close at $57.24.
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Elliott and Roger on Feb. 27, 2020
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